After the 2008 election, it seemed as if the phenomenon of “Minnewisowa” (the

mega-state of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa) acting as a bellwether on national

elections might go into prolonged hibernation. But now, as warm weather blankets

the Midwest briefly for an interval, the Minnewisowa mascot, Prairie Dog Paul,

has poked his head above ground to signal possible upsets in this critically

imortant swing region. He appears more than a month ahead of his first cousin,

Punxatawney Phil, the hitherto pre-eminent groundhog prognosticator.

 

Minnesota has one of the emblematic gubernatorial contests this year, a race

with no incumbent, and with redistricting only two years away, a lot at stake.

Democrats (DFLers) here currently control both houses of the state legislature,

but Republicans are likely to make gains. Whether those gains will lead to 

control of one or both the senate and house, however, remains to be seen.

Incumbent DFL Congressman Tim Walz in the First District is the most vulnerable,

but so far the GOP does not have a candidate.

 

In Wisconsin, there is also an open gubernatorial race, some potentially close 

congressional races, and incumbent Democratic Senator Russell Feingold,

once thought to be a sure thing for re-election, now also showing vulnerability.

 

First-in-the-nation presidential caucus state Iowa has also come alive with likely

close contests. Former GOP Governor Terry Branstad is the frontrunner to return

to office, and at least two Democratic congressmen seem vulnerable.

 

Prairie Dog Paul is not a Republican nor a Democrat. His job is to herald the

ebbs and flows of his beloved Minnewisowa. He is not saying who might win

or lose nine months from now, but he is definitely saying that his 

mega-state is worth watching closely from now until election day.

 

Take that, Punxatawney Phil, wherever you are snoozing!