THE PRAIRIE EDITOR: Upstarts and Upsets Continue
Scott Brown, the new senator-elect and upset winner in Massachusetts is not
an isolated phenomenon. A primary election in Illinois tomorrow may provide
another example in the Republican primary. Later, in GOP senate primaries
in Florida and Kentucky (to name the most notable right now), and in GOP
primaries across the nation, conservative “upstarts” are challenging party
establishment regulars for nomination in November contests.
Senator-elect Brown, it should be noted, had across-the-board support from
his party, even though he does not fit into a “conservative” mold (for example, he
is moderately pro-choice). Some of the other upstarts, including Kentucky senate
hopeful Rand Paul (his father is Libertarian leader Ron Paul), have perhaps more
ideological baggage. In Florida, popular incumbent GOP Governor Charlie Crist was
thought originally to be a shoo-in for his party’s U.S. senate nomination, but he has
been overtaken in the polls by former Florida house speaker Marco Rubio who now
appears the likely winner. In Texas, retiring Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson is running
for governor, but conservative GOP incumbent Rick Perry looks like he will fend off
the challenge.
When a very liberal GOP party nominee ran last year in a New York special
congressional election, she was opposed by a conservative who was forced to run
on only the Conservative Party line. The Democrat subsequently won that election,
taking a normally Republican seat. Democratic Party leaders and liberal media
commentators had a predictable field day with that election, and drew the conclusion
that Republicans were still hopelessly split between moderate conservative and
strongly conservative factions. It turns out this was the wrong inference. Thanks
to the policies of President Obama and the Democratic leadership in the U.S.
house and senate, Republicans appear poised to be uniting around their nominees
(especially since some of the more conservative “upstarts” are winning).
This does not mean that this phenomenon should be taken at face value as a
completely positive step. In the 2008 presidential nominating season, candidate
Ron Paul not only advocated many commendable libertarian ideas and principles,
he also offered a number of frankly whacko policies, especially in foreign
policy and the role of American security. If Rand Paul espouses those views,
he will likely not advance conservative interests if he wins the Kentucky senate
seat. In Minnesota’s first congressional district, Democratic (DFL) Tim Walz is
in serious trouble, and if the Republicans come up with a serious challenger
(which they have not so far), he could lose this November. The current
GOP frontrunner, however, is a far right candidate who is unlikely to win this
race, even in the current national conservative trend.
As I have written previously, the current problems for national Democrats
will not likely continue downward in a straight line. President Obama’s
popularity has taken an historically bad dip, but already polls in recent days
show a small upward movement for him. As the incumbent president, Mr. Obama is
not (yet) at the point of no political return, and many unhappy voters in the center
are still hoping he can recover his bearings. Democratic strategists have been
alerted by the Scott Brown upset that they have serious problems in the electorate.
If they, and the folks they work for (that is, President Obama and the congressional
leadership) don’t make necessary changes and adjustments. The upstarts will not only
win primary upsets, they will win in November.
Although there are many “true radical believers” among the Democrats (perhaps
including the president himself), smart Republican candidates and strategists
cannot assume the political landscape will go on as it has in recent months. If the
Democratic center asserts itself (as Indiana Senator Evan Bayh and others are
trying to do), it will be more difficult to defeat many Democratic incumbents. This
suggests that the emergence of an alternative and popular Republican program over
the summer is the only right strategy to go with the “upstarts” and upsets now taking
center stage.
Sure, the President is not at a point of no return. Problem is (a) you never know until after the fact when you reached that point; (b) Obama is insufferably self-confident and arrogant; which is part of the reason(c)there is nothing that suggests he is interested in a “course correction.”
I believe that our Prairie Editor has suggested (correctly, once again) that things are (a) more complicated than they first appear and (b) different in the south.
Mr. Adrusko’s position is that Obama is “insufferably self-confident and arrogant.” This may be so and it might have an impact on the election — or not. The outcome of the mid-term elections will depend more on the messages that candidates take to their electorate. As the Prairie Editor points out, the GOP message has a great deal of energy right now but it is not yet clear how compelling it will be in November. Time does change the political landscape, as I suspect Mr. Andrusko already recognizes.
Not that long ago, even George W. Bush could win an election.
Your anaysis is, as always, spot on. In my view, the political landscape for the 2010 midterms is being defined with increasing clarity, with the Brown upset in Massachusetts possibly serving as a harbinger (even catalyst) for a large surge for the party out of power. Two historical analogies: the 1991 Pennsylvania Senate Special, in which the Carville-inspired Wofford victory over Thornburgh became the template for Democratic campaigns during the cycle; and the string of GOP upsets in House specials in early 1994, which defined the political climate that created the Gingrich Congress. This year, like 1994, many candidates are surfacing late and tapping deep voter unreast. Two key aspects of the political landscape have yet to play out- will unemployment drop, and how quickly? Will the Republicans (especially NRCC) be competitive financially?
Note: Pennsylvania is experiencing very similar political trends to Minnesota, with a sudden crop of challengers and as many as eight House seats in play.