It is only about a year away from the Iowa Republican quadrennial Straw
Poll for president, and it would appear that former Massachusetts governor Mitt
Romney is as genuine a frontrunner for the GOP nomination as we have seen
for some time.

Going back even to 1996 when Bob Dole was the consensus frontrunner, 2000 when
it was George W. Bush, and 2008 when it was John MCain, we have not seen such a
strong candidacy two years from election day.

Nevertheless, frontrunner status, strong or not, is not the same as nomination.
Hillary Clinton was the prohibitive frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in
2008 (as seen in 2006 and 2007), but she is not today president of the United
States, nor was she the nominee of her party.

A nominal frontrunner (Dole, Bush and McCain) is simply someone who appears
to be ahead of his or her rivals. A strong frontrunner is someone who is likely to
win, except for mistakes they themselves make. Romney, I think, fits into the
latter category.

Here is what Romney has going for him. First, he is the one who came in second
in 2008 behind John McCain. The Republican Party, in recent years, pays a lot of
attention to this political “primogeniture.” Romney’s claim to this was reinforced
by his timely withdrawal in 2008 (unlike Mike Huckabee’s) and his indefatigable
campaigning for McCain in the autumn campaign.

Second, Romney looks and speaks the part. He has a visual charisma, but he has
not quite yet mastered its verbal counterpart. Nontheless, he clearly understands
most if not all of the national issues, domestic and foreign, and can speak to them
articulately without notes or a teleprompter. His recent major speeches to CPAC
and the National Press Club clearly demonstrated this.

Third, Romney appears ideologically to be where most Republicans seem to be
comfortable. It is true that the Mitt Romney of 2008 was an obvious makeover of
his earlier record, but he now seems confident and consistent on the major issues.

Fourth, Romney is one of the few national candidates of either party who could
self-fund a national campaign. He does not have to do so, but unlike John McCain
in 2008, he need not be at a financial disadvantage as election day approaches.

Fifth, Romney is nationally-known, virtually a household word. He has just
written a book, and is touring the country to promote it (while at the same time
making speeches and meeting with supporters).

Sixth, having run in 2008, Romney already has a political organization in all 50
states.

Mitt Romney does have drawbacks. First, suspicions (though greatly diminished)
remain about his commitment to key conservative issues.

Second, some have suggested that Romney’s religious faith, Mormonism, could
hurt him with some conservative voters, especially in the South. Perhaps, but I
think this so-called drawback has been greatly exaggerated. Recent successful
candidacies of a Catholic and a black for president, the nomination for vice
president of a Jew, make this contention ultimately a weak one. In the cauldron
of national politics of 2012, issues and personality will almost certainly supercede
this kind of issue.

Third, Romney, as I have said, has charismatic qualities, but these do not include
an ability to establish strong warm personal rapport. This is the “cold fish” aspect
of his public personality. Evaluating the impact of this on a presidential election is
very difficult. Presidents Calvin Coolidge, Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter also
had “cold” public personalities, but were able to get elected.

Fourth, Romney does have some serious potential rivals. Let us assume for the
moment that Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Scott Brown will not be presidential
hopefuls in 2012. This leaves Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Governor
Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana, and Senator
John Thune of South Dakota as formidable candidates. How they might fare is so
far unknown, but each of them has political talent and skills. Former House
speaker Newt Gingrich is potentially a huge presence in the 2012 campaign,
but notwithstanding his dominance on conservative national and international
issues, a decision from him to run in 2012 is not expected before February, 2011,
and his ability to win the GOP nomination, at this point, seems problematic.

Finally, events can and probably will intervene on the 2012 presidential election.
A disastrous mid-term election for President Obama might make his re-election
very difficult. As happened in 1980, a major Democrat could challenge the
incumbent president. The volatile international environment could see dramatic
events in he next two years, and the perilous economic environment might lead
to extreme financial conditions that would thrust someone who is not now the
frontrunner to the nomination.

But most of all, Mitt Romney is now the master of his own political destiny. As a
consummate problem-solver (the Olympic Games in Salt Lake City and the
governorship of Massachusetts), he will be in charge of solving his own
obstacles to the occupancy of the Oval Office two years from now.